2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota
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| Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
An upper Midwestern state at the western end of the Great Lakes, Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in his 1972 49-state landslide. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, who barely did so by 10.2 percentage points (297,945 votes). Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 by just 1.5 points (44,593 votes), although incumbent President Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin of victory to 7.1 points in 2020 (233,012 votes). Minnesota is considered to be a Democratic-leaning state in this election.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the Democratic presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] The Republican nominee is former president Donald J. Trump.[5] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot.[6]
On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.[7] This decision has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among Progressives. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues are expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, potentially securing the state for the Democratic ticket. Following Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, Walz would become the third vice president from Minnesota if elected.[8]
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 232,846 | 68.94% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Nikki Haley | 97,182 | 28.77% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 4,085 | 1.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,470 | 0.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,431 | 0.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 720 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 337,014 | 100.00% | 39 | 0 | 39 |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 171,278 | 70.1% | 64 | 64 | |
| Uncommitted | 45,914 | 18.8% | 11 | 11 | |
| Dean Phillips | 18,960 | 7.8% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 3,459 | 1.4% | |||
| Write-in votes | 2,000 | 0.8% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 758 | 0.3% | |||
| Cenk Uygur | 692 | 0.3% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 372 | 0.2% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 323 | 0.1% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 290 | 0.1% | |||
| Eban Cambridge | 235 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 244,281 | 100% | 75 | 17 | 92 |
Legal Marijuana Now primary
[edit]The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krystal Gabel (withdrew) | 759 | 28.84% | - | ||
| Dennis Schuller | 459 | 17.44% | 7 | ||
| Vermin Supreme | 397 | 15.08% | 6 | ||
| Rudy Reyes | 365 | 13.87% | 5 | ||
| Edward Forchion | 168 | 6.38% | 2 | ||
| Willie Nelson (write-in) | 19 | 0.72% | 0 | ||
| Other write-ins | 465 | 17.67% | - | ||
| Total: | 2,632 | 100.00% | 20 | ||
| Source:[12] | |||||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Minnesota:[13]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation
- Cornel West, Independent
- Shiva Ayyadurai, Independent
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[14] | Likely D | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[15] | Lean D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely D | August 6, 2024 |
| The Economist[17] | Likely D | August 23, 2024 |
| CNalysis[18] | Solid D | August 6, 2024 |
| CNN[19] | Lean D | August 25, 2024 |
| 538[20] | Likely D | August 23, 2024 |
| RCP[21] | Lean D | July 27, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | July 22 – September 8, 2024 | September 16, 2024 | 49.7% | 44.3% | 6.0% | Harris +5.4% |
| 270ToWin | August 30 – September 13, 2024 | September 16, 2024 | 49.8% | 44.0% | 6.2% | Harris +5.8% |
| RacetotheWH | through September 13, 2024 | September 16, 2024 | 50.3% | 43.6% | 6.1% | Harris +6.7% |
| Silver Bulletin | through September 17, 2024 | September 17, 2024 | 50% | 44% | 6.0% | Harris +6.0% |
| 538 | through September 18, 2024 | September 18, 2024 | 49.9% | 43.4% | 6.7% | Harris +6.5% |
| Average | 50% | 43.85% | 6.15% | Harris +6.15% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult[22] | September 9−18, 2024 | 517 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| Embold Research/MinnPost[23] | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,616 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 45% | 6%[c] |
| Morning Consult[22] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[24][A] | August 27–29, 2024 | 635 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| SurveyUSA[25][A] | July 23–25, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 10%[d] |
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[27] | September 6–9, 2024 | 617 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[28] | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 40% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[29] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 538 (LV) | – | 46% | 41% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[30] | July 22–24, 2024 | 475 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 6% | – | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald J. Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[31] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51%[e] | 49% | – | ||
| SurveyUSA[32][A] | June 12–16, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 41% | 12%[f] |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[33][B] | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[34][A] | May 8–11, 2024 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 42% | 14%[g] |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[35][B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| John Zogby Strategies[36][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 417 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[37][A] | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[h] |
| SurveyUSA[38][A] | February 23–28, 2024 | 1,603 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 38% | 20%[g] |
| SurveyUSA[39][A] | January 24–29, 2024 | 1,594 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 39% | 19%[g] |
| Embold Research/MinnPost[40] | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,519 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College[41] | October 1–4, 2023 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[42] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[31] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[33][B] | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[35][B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[43][D] | June 3–5, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 6% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[36][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 417 (LV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[36][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 417 (LV) | – | 47% | 36% | 17% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[26] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[42] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Minnesota
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Other" with 6%
- ^ a b c "Other" with 9%
- ^ "Other" with 11%
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ McFadden, Alyce; Robinson, Taylor; Abraham, Leanne; O'Brien, Rebecca Davis (April 29, 2024). "Where R.F.K. Jr. and Independent Presidential Candidates Are On the Ballot". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
- ^ "Harris picks Walz for VP". The Hill. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
- ^ Yilek, Caitlin; Cordes, Nancy; Navarro, Aaron; Cavazos, Nidia; Woodall, Hunter; Jiang, Weijia; O'Keefe, Ed (August 6, 2024). "Kamala Harris picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP running mate". CBS News. Archived from the original on August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
- ^ "Minnesota Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Primary Results". Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". OFFICE OF THE MINNESOTA SECRETARY OF STATE STEVE SIMON. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State. March 12, 2024.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Kamala Harris has put the Democrats back in the race". The Economist. August 23, 2024. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. July 27, 2024. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
- ^ a b Easley, Cameron; Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2024). "Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State". Morning Consult.
- ^ Radelat, Ana (September 13, 2024). "MinnPost poll shows Harris has narrow lead over Trump in Minnesota". MinnPost.
- ^ "Conventions and Primary Over, Campaign Season Underway, GOP Gains Back Some Ground in Minnesota, But Democrats and DFL Remain On Top". SurveyUSA. August 30, 2024.
- ^ "Democrats' Pivot To Kamala Produces Immediate Results in Minnesota, Where VP Harris Now Leads Former President Trump By 10 Points; Klobuchar Widens Leads in Likely Senate Match-Ups, DFL Candidates Increase Odds in MN House Races; JD Vance Not Seen As Great VP Choice". SurveyUSA. July 25, 2024.
- ^ a b c d Balara, Victoria (July 26, 2024). "Fox News Poll: Harris bests Trump by 6 points in Minnesota". Fox News.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (6 – 9 September 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. September 10, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 19, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 6, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (22-24 July 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. July 25, 2024.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (June 20, 2024). "June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Trump Conviction Leads to Biden Gains in Minnesota, Where He Now Leads the Former President By 6; Klobuchar Up Double Digits in Senate Race". SurveyUSA. June 17, 2024.
- ^ a b "Donald Trump Leading in Minnesota" (PDF). McLaughlin & Associates. June 13, 2024.
- ^ "The Wall Street Phenomenon Which May Explain Why So Few Trump Voters Intend to Jump Ship if Former President is Convicted ...No Change Month-on-Month in North Star State, as Biden Maintains 2-Point Edge vs. Trump and Klobuchar Holds Double-Digit Lead on Fraser". SurveyUSA. May 13, 2024.
- ^ a b McLaughlin, John (May 6, 2024). "Minnesota & Virginia Are Clearly In Play & Prime Opportunities to Flip for Donald Trump". X.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Contest Tightens in Minnesota, as Undecided Voters Start To Pick Sides; Klobuchar Lead Holds Steady; GOP Gains in State House Votes". SurveyUSA. April 8, 2024.
- ^ "Trump Dips a Point, Now Trailing Biden by 4 pts in Minnesota Polling, But 'Undecided' Picks it Up, Now at 11%, 35 Weeks From Election Day". SurveyUSA. February 29, 2024.
- ^ "Biden Starts '24 Campaign Just 3 Points Atop Trump in Minnesota ... But 40 Weeks Out, 9% Vote "Other," 10% "Undecided," Which Will Change". SurveyUSA. January 30, 2024.
- ^ Radelat, Ana (November 29, 2023). "Poll: Biden, Trump running virtually neck-and-neck in Minnesota". MinnPost.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 16, 2023). "Minnesota 2024 Poll: Biden Holds Narrow Lead over Trump". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b "DeSantis is tied with Biden in Virginia and within striking distance of the President in three other '24 "reach" states. Trump is poised to lose these four states for a third time". X. May 12, 2023.
- ^ Helmstetter, Craig; Clary, Alyson (June 10, 2024). "Minnesota Poll: June 2024". APM Research Lab.
