Recent public health data shows a promising decline in drug overdose deaths in the United States. Provisional drug overdose death counts conducted by the CDC show an unprecedented 10.6 percent decline in overdose deaths in the 12-month ending period in April 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year. There has been a huge increase in drug overdose deaths over the past decade, with numbers rising from around 40,000 in 2015 to over 100,000 by 2024—so a decline is truly significant.
Researchers are still parsing the drug overdose data, trying to make sense of a complex problem, and overall, the report is quite cautious about interpreting these changes. While they can’t point to one silver bullet that is reversing the trend, they can point to a few factors that are contributing—and not all are necessarily good. For instance, deaths initially reported as having a “pending investigation” status can significantly underestimate the true death count, especially in places like North Carolina with higher percentages of such cases.
NPR, which broke the news, spoke to an expert on street drugs from the University of North Carolina named Nabarun Dasgupta who says that the numbers coming out of some states show a 20 and sometimes even 30 percent decrease. A few other experts pointed to easy access to the overdose reversal medication naloxone as playing a big part. While there are still plenty of drug users who are still taking dangerously high doses, many of them are now carrying the life-saving drug as well. One survey out of Seattle showed that 85 percent of high-risk drug users carry naloxone on them.
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Every person interviewed in the NPR article at some point mentions how they can’t believe these numbers are dropping so quickly. Harm reduction activist Dennis Couchon said, “The deaths were just plummeting. The data has never moved like this.” The aforementioned Dasgupta said, “We don’t have anything that would predict this magnitude of effect this quickly.” Added an addiction researcher from the University of California San Francisco named Daniel Ciccarone, “What makes it fascinating is the speed at which it’s happening.”
There are still over 100,000 overdose-related deaths annually, and the street drug supply remains as dangerous and prone to tampering as ever. Still, there is plenty of reason to feel encouraged.
