Abstract
The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar KR, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 111:D05109
Barriopedro D, Fischer EM, Luterbacher J, Trigo RM, García-Herrera R (2011) The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of europe. Science 332:220–224
Battipaglia G, Frank D, Büntgen U, Dobrovolný P, Brázdil R, Pfister C, Esper J (2010) Five centuries of central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence. Glob Planet Chang 72:182–191
Brázdil R, Štěpánková P, Kyncl T, Kyncl J (2002) Fir tree-ring reconstruction of March-July precipitation in southern Moravia (Czech Republic), 1376–1996. Clim Res 20:223–239
Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P, Luterbacher J, Moberg A, Pfister C, Wheeler D, Zorita E (2010) European climate of the past 500 years: new challenges for historical climatology. Clim Chang 101:7–40
Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P, Trnka M, Kotyza O, Řezníčková L, Valášek H, Zahradníček P, Štěpánek P (2013a) Droughts in the Czech lands, 1090–2012 AD. Clim Past 9:1985–2002
Brázdil R, Kotyza O, Dobrovolný P, Řezníčková L, Valášek H (2013b) Climate of the Sixteenth Century in the Czech Lands. Masaryk University, Brno, pp. 286
Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2006) Niedrigwasserperiode 2003 in Deutschland. Ursachen – Wirkungen – Folgen. Mitteilungen 27, Koblenz
Büntgen U, Frank DC, Nievergelt D, Esper J (2006) Summer temperature variation in the European Alps, A.D. 755–2004. J Clim 19:5606–5623
Büntgen U, Brázdil R, Heussner KU, Hoffmann J, Kontic R, Kyncl T, Pfister C, Chromá K, Tegel W (2011) Combined dendro-documentary evidence of central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium. Quat Sci Rev 30(27–28):3947–3959. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.10.010
Buwal BWG, Meteo S (2004) Auswirkungen des Hitzesommers 2003 auf die Gewässer. Schriftenr Umwelt Nr 369:1–174
Casty C, Wanner H, Luterbacher J, Esper J, Böhm R (2005) Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500. Int J Climatol 25(14):1855–1880
Ciscar JC, Saveyn B, Soria A, Szabo L, Van Regemorter D, Van Ierland T (2012) A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios. Energy Policy 55:73–81
Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster JM, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, in press
Dobrovolný P, Moberg A, Brázdil R, Pfister C, Glaser R, Wilson R, van Engelen A, Limanówka D, Kiss A, Halíčková M, Macková J, Riemann D, Luterbacher J, Böhm R (2010) Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD1500. Clim Chang 101:69–107
Dobrovolný P, Brázdil R, Trnka M, Kotyza O, Valášek H (2014) Precipitation reconstruction for the Czech Lands, AD 1501–2010, Int. J. of Climatology, accepted
Donat MG, Alexander LV, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Caesar J (2013) Global land-based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:997–1006. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00109.1
Esper J, Büntgen U, Frank D, Pichler T, Nicolussi K (2007) Updating the Tyrol treering dataset. In: Haneca, K., et al. (Ed.), Tree rings in archaeology, climatology and ecology. TRACE, vol. 5:80–85
Ferranti L, Viterbo P (2006) The European summer of 2003: sensitivity to soil water initial conditions. J Clim 19:3659–3680
Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Schär C (2007) Soil moisture–atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave. J Clim 20:5081–5099
García-Herrera R, Díaz J, Trigo RM, Luterbacher J, Fischer EM (2010) A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003. Crit Rev Environ Sci Technol 40:267–306
Gelman A et al (2003) Bayesian data analysis. Text in Statistical Science. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton
Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: The CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58(3):175–183
Glaser R, Brázdil R, Pfister C, Dobrovolný P, Barriendos M, Bokwa A, Camuffo A, Kotyza O, Limanówka D, Rácz L, Rodrigo FS (1999) Seasonal temperature and precipitation fluctuations in selected parts of Europe during the sixteenth century. Clim Chang 43(1):169–200
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R (2012) Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1205276109
Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Brönnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener FJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Easterling DR, Kaplan A, Soden BJ, Thorne PW, Wild M, Zhai PM (2013) Observations: Atmosphere and surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, in press.
Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(8):1149–1165
Helama S, Timonen M, Holopainen J, Ogurtsov MG, Mielikäinen K, Eronen M, Lindholm M, Meriläinen J (2009) Summer temperature variations in Lapland during the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age relative to natural insta-bility of thermohaline circulation on multi-decadal and multi-centennial scales. J Quatern Sci. doi:10.1002/jqs.1291
Herget H, Meurs H (2010) Reconstructing peak discharges for historic flood levels in the city of cologne. Germany Global Planet Chang 70:108–116
Hirschi M, Seneviratne SI, Alexandrov V, Boberg F, Boroneant C, Christensen OB, Formayer H, Orlowsky B, Stepanek P (2011) Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nat Geosci 4:17–21. doi:10.1038/ngeo1032
Jacobeit J, Wanner H, Gudd M (1999) European surface pressure patterns for months with outstanding climatic anomalies during the sixteenth century. Clim Chang 43:201–221
Jaeger EB, Seneviratne SI (2011) Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model. Clym Dyn 36:1919–1939
Koster RD, Suarez MJ (2001) Soil moisture memory in climate models. J Hydrometeorol 2:558–570
Limanówka D (2001) Rekonstrukcja warunków klimatycznych krakowa w pierwszej polowie XVI wieku. Mat Badaw IMGW Seria Meteorol 33:3–176
Lorenz R, Jaeger EB, Seneviratne SI (2010) Persistence of heat waves and its links to soil moisture memory. Geophys Res Lett 37, L09703. doi:10.1029/2010GL042764
Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st Century. Science 305:994–997
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. doi:10.1038/nature
Mueller B, Seneviratne SI (2012) Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(31):12398–12403. doi:10.1073/pnas.1204330109
Orth R, Seneviratne SI (2012) Analysis of soil moisture memory from observations in Europe. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, 117: D15115, doi:10.1029/2011JD017366
Pfister C (1984) Das Klima der Schweiz von 1525 bis 1860 und seine Bedeutung in der Geschichte von Bevölkerung und Landwirtschaft. 2 vols. Paul Haupt. Bern. pp. 184
Pfister C (1999) Wetternachhersage. 500 Jahre Klimavariationen und Naturkatastrophen 1496–1995. Haupt. Bern. pp. 304
Pfister C, Brázdil R (1999) Climatic variability in Sixteenth-Century Europe and its social dimension. Clim Chang 43(1):789–792
Pfister C, Weingartner R, Luterbacher J (2006) Hydrological winter droughts over the last 450 years in the upper rhine basin: A methodological approach. Hydrol Sci Spec Issue Hist Hydrol 51(5):966–985
Poumadère M, Mays C, Le Mer S, Blong R (2005) The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now. Risk Anal 25:1483–1494
ProClim. Forum for Climate and Global Change. (2005) Hitzesommer 2003. Synthesebericht Druckzentrum Vögeli AG. Bern
Quesada B, Vautard R, Yiou P, Hirschi M, Seneviratne SI (2012) Asymmetric European predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs. Nat Clim Chang 2:736–741. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1536
Schmidt GA, Jungclaus JH, Ammann CM, Bard E, Braconnot P, Crowley TJ, Delaygue G, Joos F, Krivova NA, Muscheler R, Otto-Bliesner BL, Pongratz J, Shindell DT, Solanki SK, Steinhilber F, Vieira LEA (2011) Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0). Geosci. Model Dev 4:33–45
Schweingruber FH, Bartholin T, Schaur E, Briffa KR (1988) Radiodensitometric-dendroclimatological conifer chronologies from Lapland (Scandinavia) and the alps (Switzerland). Boreas 17:559–566
Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Litschi M, Schär C (2006) Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443:205–209
Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ (2010) Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth Sci Rev 99(3–4):125–161. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004
Seneviratne SI, Nicholls D, Easterling CM, Goodess S, Kanae J, Kossin Y, Luo J, Marengo K, McInnes M, Rahimi M, Reichstein A, Sorteberg, Vera C, Zhang X (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field CB, V Barros, TF Stocker, D Qin, DJ Dokken, KL Ebi, MD Mastrandrea, KJ Mach, GK Plattner, SK Allen, M Tignor and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 109–230
Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491:435–438. doi:10.1038/nature11575
Stefanon M, D’Andrea F, Drobinski P (2012) Heatwave classification over Europe and the mediterranean region. Environ Res Lett 7:1–9
Tallaksen LM, van Lanen HAJ (2004) Hydrological Drought. Processes and Estimation Methods for Streamflow and Groundwater. Developments in Water Science vol. 48. Elsevier, Amsterdam
Tingley M, Martin P, Craigmile PF, Haran M, Li B, Mannshardt-Shamseldin E, Rajaratnam B (2012) Piecing together the past: Statistical insights into paleoclimatic reconstructions. Quat Sci Rev 35:1–22
Trenberth KE, Fasullo J, Kiehl J (2009) Earth’s global energy budget. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(3):311–323
Trigo RM, Pereira JMC, Pereira MG, Mota B, Calado T, Dacamara CC, Santo FE (2006) Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal. Int J Climatol 26(13):1741–1757
Vautard R, Yiou P, D’Andrea FD, de Noblet N, Viovy N, Cassou C, Polcher J, Ciais P, Kageyama M, Fan Y (2007) Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime mediterranean rainfall deficit. Geophys Res Lett 34, L07711
Verdú FA, Salas JA, Vega-García C (2012) A multivariate analysis of biophysical factors and forest fires in Spain, 1991–2005. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2012:A-L, http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF11100
Vinnikov KY, Yeserkepova IB (1991) Soil moisture: empirical data and model results. J Clim 4:66–79
Wetter O, Pfister C (2013) An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003. Clim Past 9:41–56
Wetter O, Pfister C, Weingartner R, Luterbacher J, Reist T, Trösch J (2011) The largest floods in the high Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol Sci J 56(5):733–758
Zampieri M, D’Andrea F, Vautard R, Ciais P, De Noblet-Ducoudré N, Yiou P (2009) Hot European summers and the role of soil moisture in the propagation of mediterranean drought. J Clim 22:4747–4758
Zwierlein C (2011) Der gezähmte Prometheus. Feuer und Sicherheit zwischen Früher Neuzeit und Moderne Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht. Göttingen. pp. 433
Acknowledgments
Acknowledgements are due to the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant 100011–120157), the Oeschger Centre for Climatic Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, the Dr. H. A. Vögelin-Bienz-Stiftung, the Joséphine de Kármán-Stiftung for funding support of Oliver Wetter (OW). Eduardo Zorita (EZ), Sebastian Wagner (SW), Johannes Werner (JW) and Jürg Luterbacher (JL) acknowledge the German Science Fundation DFG Project PRIME 2 (“Precipitation In past Millennia in Europe- extension back to Roman times”) within the Priority Programme “INTERDYNAMIK”. JW, JL, SW and EZ are partially funded by the project of the German Science Foundation PRIME-2. Further acknowledgments are due to the Project “Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal, using documentary and early instrumental sources (PTDC/AAC- CLI/119078/2010). Mariano Barriendos (MB) acknowledges the Spanish Ministery of Economy and Competitiveness for project I + D + i nr. CGL2011-28255 and the European Commission for project IP017008-2 “MILLENNIUM”. Rudolf Brázdil (RB) and Petr Dobrovolný (PD) acknowledge the Czech Science Foundation (GACR) for projects no. 13-19831S (RB) and 13-04291S (PD). Danuta Limanówka (DL) acknowledges the support by the Polish State Committee for Scientific Research (KBN): grant No. PO4E 024 10 and MNiSW grant No. 356/6. PR UE/2007/7. Samuli Helama, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Helsinki, Finnland is acknowledged for providing his long term tree ring series.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
ESM 1
(PDF 1302 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Werner, J.P. et al. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case. Climatic Change 125, 349–363 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2