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We are three weeks to Oscar night and there are three (possibly four?!?) frontrunners for the Best Picture Oscar: The Big Short, The Revenant, Spotlight, and potentially Mad Max: Fury Road. If that seems a little crowded to you, you’re not alone. This is one of the most intense Best Picture races in memory and insiders are biting their nails and scratching their heads as to which way the race will go.

Usually, at this point, one or two films have gobbled up the majority of the big prizes and major critical honors. Early on in the race, Spotlight, with its potent political message and gorgeously restrained artistry, looked like the easy frontrunner (and seemed to secure this place by winning the SAG award). Then, Alejandro G. Iñarritu’s The Revenant roared onto the scene. The Revenant is easily the most divisive film in the race and it has divided critics and audiences since its earliest screenings. Some herald it as a masterpiece, while others find it plodding or, at worst, self-indulgent. Nevertheless, Iñarritu has a lot of support from Hollywood and Iñarritu took home the top prize at the DGA awards. Then, The Big Short came out of seemingly nowhere to snatch up the top PGA award.

So, what does this all mean? Well, that the three major branches of the Academy — actors, directors, and producers — are split on which film should win Best Picture. Adding complexity to this situation is the fact that the Best Picture Oscar is awarded based on rankings. It’s an intricate system that relies on a positive consensus over individual votes. Sasha Stone at AwardsDaily thinks that even though The Revenant seems to have the most heat at the moment, it’s divisiveness will scorch its chances. That gives an opening for Spotlight or The Big Short to edge in there.

Which will it be? Well, there are strong arguments for and against either one, but we at Decider have a feeling Spotlight will nudge on through. Still, it’s very much up in the air and it’s all going to come down to the tricky mathematics of Oscar ballots… And you thought the Iowa Caucus made no sense.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will win all six major categories — not who we think deserves to be — plus the most likely “dark horse.” Enter “The Oscar Grouch“:

BEST PICTURE

Current Pick: Spotlight
Possible Dark Horse: The Big Short or The Revenant
What’s The Buzz? As we said above, we think that the votes could split and that’s how Spotlight will take the top prize. This is one of the most heated Best Picture races on record and it could go to either of the three top contenders.

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Pick: Alejandro G. Iñarritu (The Revenant)
Possible Dark Horse: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
What’s The Buzz? Since Iñarritu took home the DGA prize this weekend — making him the first director to win Best Film Director two years in a row! — we’re switching our picks this week. As much as we’d like to see George Miller win the Oscar for his stunning reboot of his own dystopian mythology, we can’t deny that Iñarritu has some major pull on Oscar voters.

BEST ACTOR

Current Pick: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Possible Dark Horse: No one
What’s The Buzz? This is his year! This is Leo’s year! And no bear can take it away from him!

BEST ACTRESS

Current Pick: Brie Larson (Room)
Possible Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
What’s The Buzz? Every so often, a beguiling ingenue rises through the indie ranks and takes Hollywood by storm. She’s charming, poised, talented, and looks great holding a little gold statue. This year, that woman is Brie Larson. She’s gobbled up pretty much every major acting award on offer this awards season and we expect her to take the Oscar. Her biggest threat? The other beguiling ingenue of the season, Saoirse Ronan.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Pick: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Possible Dark Horse: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
What’s The Buzz? If you think Leo’s waited long enough for an Oscar, then Stallone should have nabbed one decades ago. The Creed star never took home his own gold statue for Rocky and a win here will cap off a monumental career. There’s also the pesky fact that some in the Academy will perceive any win for Creed as a win for Ryan Coogler. Again, look out for the ever-likable and always brilliant Mark Ruffalo to potentially upset.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Pick: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Possible Dark Horse: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
What’s The Buzz? For most of the Oscar season, we’ve put Alicia Vikander in first place, and we’re keeping her there. The bewitching Swedish actress “slayed” last year in not one, but two stand out roles. We think that, plus her string of wins, will give her the edge over the competition. Nevertheless, look out for Winslet to steal the win. Everyone knows and loves the actress and it will only seem fitting for her to win on Leo’s big night. Titanic forever!!!

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.